Georgia v. Ashcroft
April 29, 2003 (02-182)
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Case Summary
This case presents the question of whether the Voting Rights Act of 1965 permits spreading minority voters across a state in multiple districts as opposed to concentrating them in a smaller number of "majority-minority" districts. In an effort to enhance Democratic representation following the 2000 census, the Georgia state legislature revised the state?s Congressional and state legislative districts to "unpack" black voters from a smaller number of high-concentration districts and spread black voters more evenly over a larger number of districts. Respondents challenged the redistricting plans as a violation of the Voting Rights Act on the basis that they diluted minority voting strength, and a three-judge panel of the D.C. Circuit agreed in an opinion issued April 5, 2002. See 195 F.Supp. 2d 25. In a separate opinion issued June 3, 2002, the same three-judge panel upheld Petitioner?s alternative redistricting plan. See 204 F.Supp.2d 4. Petitioner appeals from the panel?s invalidation of the original plan, and the Supreme Court noted probable jurisdiction. The opinion of the district court is found at 195 F.Supp.2d 25; 204 F.Supp.2d 4.

To see the opinion of the lower court, click here.


PREDICTED OUTCOME ACTUAL
OUTCOME
Forecasting
Model
Expert
One
Expert
Two
Expert
Three
5-4 to Reverse 6-3 to Affirm 5-4 to Reverse n/a 5-4 to Reverse
VOTING TO REVERSE
Rehnquist
O'Connor
Scalia
Kennedy
Thomas
Rehnquist
Scalia
Thomas
Rehnquist
O'Connor
Scalia
Kennedy
Thomas
Rehnquist
O'Connor
Scalia
Kennedy
Thomas
VOTING TO AFFIRM
Stevens
Souter
Ginsburg
Breyer
Stevens
O'Connor
Kennedy
Souter
Ginsburg
Breyer
Stevens
Souter
Ginsburg
Breyer
Stevens
Souter
Ginsburg
Breyer

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